Homebuying Continues to Pick Up in March 2019

With economic conditions working in favor of homebuyers, REALTORS® reported an uptick in homebuying traffic in March 2019 compared to one year ago, according to National Association of Realtor’s March  2019 REALTORS® Confidence Index Survey.[1] Low mortgage rate, a record low unemployment rate since 1953,  sustained job creation of more than 2 million per year since 2012, and an increase in real wage growth are all working in favor of homebuyers.

 
The REALTORS® Buyer Traffic Index increased to 63 in March 2019 (55 in February 2019), the fourth month of sustained recovery after it dipped to a low of 44 in November 2018 when mortgage rates hit almost five percent. But buyers started house-hunting again as mortgage rates started falling in December 2018 when the Federal Reserve put a hold on interest rate hikes for the year and adopted a patient policy stance. As of the week of May 9, the 30-year fixed rate has climbed down to near four percent, to 4.11 percent.[2] The REALTORS® Buyer Traffic Index leads existing and pending home sales by one to two months so the uptick in the March index indicates a stronger market in May, along with the seasonal uptick in homebuying activity.

Buyer traffic conditions were stable or stronger during the 3-month period of January—March 2019 compared to the same period one year ago in 47 states and in the District of Columbia. However, REALTORS® reported weaker buyer traffic in California, Connecticut, and West Virginia.  Respondents from California have reported the lingering negative impact of the California wildfires on the supply of and demand for homes in affected areas. However, the lower mortgage rates and decline in prices in CA metros such as San Francisco should make homes more affordable and cause a pickup in homebuying activity in the coming months. Respondents from California and Connecticut also reported that high property taxes and the $10,000 limit on the combined itemized deduction for property taxes, state and local income tax (SALT)—  are negatively affecting homebuying.

 

With mortgage rates falling, the mortgage payment arising on a median-priced home at 10 percent down payment has fallen from $1,259 in June 2018 to $1,151 as of March 2019, a savings of $108 per month, which amounts to $38,991 over a 30-year period.

The decline in mortgage rates is not the only positive factor underpinning the pickup in homebuying. Perhaps more important is the strong job and wage growth. The unemployment rate fell to a low of 3.6 percent in April 2019, the lowest since 1953; 2.6 million net new jobs were created as of April 2019 from one year ago; and the number of unemployed fell to 5.8 million from 6.3 million one year ago.  Wages continue to increase at a faster pace than inflation, with average weekly wages rising at nearly three percent in April 2019 from one year ago, ahead of inflation of two percent. Economic conditions are pointing to an increase in homebuying activity, which REALTORS® are seeing on the ground!

 

 Information courtesy of National Association of Realtors

National Association of Realtors Economist's Outlook

Construction and Housing Starts Outlook for 2019—2028

Posted in Economist Commentaries, by Scholastica (Gay) Cororaton, Research Economist on May 1, 2019

Job growth continues to increase strongly, with the economy generating 2.5 million jobs in March 2019 from one year ago. Payroll employment rose in March 2019 from one year ago in all industries except for information services, utilities, and retail trade. With the economic recovery now on its 10th year of expansion, payroll employment has increased by 2.3 million annually since September 2010. With the unemployment rate at a low level of 3.9 percent, wages[1] have also been rising faster than inflation in all major industry groups except transportation and warehousing and manufacturing.
Construction jobs[2] rose by 239,000 in March 2019 from one year ago, the fourth largest source of job growth, next to health care & social assistance, accommodation & food services, professional & technical services, and manufacturing.
In terms of level change, the largest increases in construction jobs occurred in California, Washington, Nevada, Arizona, Texas, New York, Georgia, Florida, and West Virginia. As of March 2019, construction jobs made up a larger fraction of total nonfarm payroll employment—at six to eight percent—in Washington, Nevada, Utah, Idaho, Wyoming, Colorado, Florida, as well as Louisiana and West Virginia.

Notwithstanding the sustained and solid growth in construction jobs, residential construction employment is still below the peak pre-recession level. As of March 2019, there were 550,000 fewer people employed in residential building construction and specialty trades (2.9 million) compared to the peak levels during the housing market boom (3.45 million). Lack of construction labor has constrained the building of new homes, leading to a tight housing market.
In contrast, non-residential (‘commercial’) construction is now slightly above the peak pre-recession level. As of March 2019, there were 26,000 more people employed in the non-residential building construction and specialty trades (3.47 million) compared to the peak level during the housing market boom (3.44 million). The industrial and office commercial sectors have been growing strongly amid sustained economic growth, the penetration of data and technology in every industry requiring data storage facilities, and the expansion of e-commerce which has increased the demand for warehouses and distribution centers.

Housing starts projections for 2019-2028
During 2016 through 2018, jobs in building construction and specialty trade rose five percent on average and there was one housing start per five jobs created. Based on these recent trends, one can project that housing starts will increase from 1.362 million in 2018 to 2.0 million by 2028. In 2019, this means an increase of only 56,000 housing starts, and in 2020, an increase of 57,000 housing starts. This is still below the shortage of about 600,000 units[3] based on household formation and for replacement for obsolete/demolished housing.

Housing supply will continue to remain tight unless constructions job growth accelerates to more than the current annual pace of four percent. Addressing the current housing supply constraints will require collaboration between industries and trade-schools in attracting workers, including women, in construction. The relatively higher wage of construction workers compared to workers in manufacturing, transportation, and warehousing, education and health, retail trade, hospitality, and private industries in general, should attract workers in construction compared to these other industries, if workers are trained in these specialty skilled jobs.
With demand likely to outpace supply, there will also be increasing demand for housing that requires less construction labor, such as panelized and modular construction and manufactured housing.

View the State Employment Monitor report here.

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[1] Average weekly wages, Bureau of Labor Statistics
[2] The construction industry (NAICS Code 23) is composed of the construction of buildings (residential and non-residential), heavy and civil engineering construction, and specialty trade contractors (residential and non-residential).
[3] Currently, there are 1.1 million housing starts, while household formation is running at about 1.3 million, a deficit of 200,000 units related to household formation alone. In addition, about 450,000 housing units are needed to replace units lost to obsolescence or that are demolished (0.36% of housing stock of 1.127 million units.